Anil Trigunayat
Sudden removal of longstanding autocrats has become increasingly common at least since the Arab Spring in 2010 when public furore and street anger and popular frustration — combined and engineered with regime change agendas of regional and global powers, led to Ben Ali, Gaddafi and Mubarak’s unceremonious departure from power. But these very facts brought out the big power play trying to balance once again especially by Russia and Iran which saved the downfall of Syrian strongman and autocratic Bashar Al Assad who survived the regime change agenda for at least a decade when he was dumped by his benefactors for their own compulsions.
He was even accepted back into the Arab brotherhood fold and the Arab League. Hence, his removal due to persistence of Turkiye and the US, and changing regional dynamic with Israel having decapitated the Iran backed Hezbollah leadership brought about the sudden shift in Syrian political landscape when Hayat Tahrir al shams (HTS) leader Mohammed Jolani or more famously known as Ahmed Al Sharaa supported by his benefactors and dozens of other extremist groups and disgruntled people deposed Assad on December 8 in a high speed successful operation. Assad was flown into exile to Moscow.
Al Sharaa , who has been an Al Qaeda and ISIS member and operative involved in umpteen number of terror incidents, found himself whitewashed by the western cleaning machines. What came out was a smart and pragmatic ( at least on the surface of it) suave, pinstriped suits donning self assumed President of the Syrian Arab Republic even with a new flag.
He has visits from west and visited regional leaders and is supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey among others. Iran and Russia lost significant ground even though Moscow appears to have cut some deals to retain their bases in Tartous and Latakia. But there are also reports that ISIS is regaining its lost ground and may even try to release its over 10000 fighters and their families imprisoned in Al Hol etc. They may be looking to exploit the fragile situation in Syria.
Turkiye and Israel and to some extent the US have emerged as bigger stakeholders and gained control over the territory and local power dynamic. While the US supported Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hitherto fighting for autonomy and independence and have been a threat to Ankara eventually cut a deal with al Sharaa and are now the part of the new government and dispensation which has removed at least one hurdle for Turkiye.
But Israel’s occupation of Golan heights and even more territory as well as bombings at will have become a continuing threat for new Syrian government as well as Turkiye which considered the recent gains in Syria as exclusive. While the Syrian leadership is in a much weaker position to counter the Israeli designs and have been making pragmatic statements to assuage any fears which Tel Aviv might be harbouring since it very much refers to Al Sharaa as a terrorist.
Sharaa claimed that “We are trying to use patience and wisdom as much as possible. If there are fears, we have announced from the first moments that Syria will not pose a threat to any state in the region or the world. And if there are expansionist motives, the entire world agreed with Syria to condemn Israel’s steps in advancing on Syrian territory.”
The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) conducted an inspection in Syria’s southern Daraa province, visiting areas targeted by Israeli occupation forces (IDF). Be that as it may, sooner than later one may witness the Syrian frustration with a ‘free for all scenario ‘and occupation of their territory could ignite the cinders against Netanyahu’s love for land. In fact, they were helped by the societal fears and social divisions. Druze community even seems to have approached the Israelis for help.
Meanwhile, President Erdogan wants to take the full advantage of their surrogates by having proper bases and decisive control which also comes in direct conflict with the Jewish state with whom there is no love lost especially since the Israel- Hamas war of nearly 18 months and still going on. Although mired by his own domestic troubles and opposition Erdogan basks in the glory of his friendship with President Trump who congratulated him for an exceptional achievements in Syria .
Anil Trigunayat, former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation.
The article was published in CNBC TV18 as The Syrian landscape: Why the country must emerge from its misery without delay on April 14, 2025.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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Acknowledgment: This article was posted by Nitika Kumari, a research intern at IMPRI.
