Harshdeep Roshan
The New Maritime Center of Gravity
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR), once a strategic backwater, has emerged as the 21st century’s pivotal maritime theater. As the conduit for over 80% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, it is the central arena where the ambitions of Asia’s two resident giants, China and India, converge and collide. This intensifying rivalry is best understood through two strategic metaphors: China’s ‘String of Pearls’ and India’s ‘Necklace of Diamonds’.
The ‘String of Pearls’ refers to the network of Chinese-funded facilities stretching from the South China Sea to Africa, forming a strategic arc around India. In response, India’s ‘Necklace of Diamonds’ is a counterstrategy of building its own network of partnerships and bases to mitigate this perceived encirclement. This has created an asymmetric competition: China’s ‘String of Pearls’ is an offensive, global power projection strategy, while India’s ‘Necklace of Diamonds’ is a primarily defensive, regionally focused counterstrategy that leverages geographic advantages and key partnerships.
The Dragon’s Reach: Deconstructing China’s ‘String of Pearls’
The primary motivation for Beijing’s push into the Indian Ocean is the ‘Malacca Dilemma’. As the world’s largest oil importer, China is acutely vulnerable to disruptions along the IOR’s sea lanes, as nearly 80% of its energy imports transit the narrow Strait of Malacca—a chokepoint potentially controlled by the Indian and U.S. navies. The ‘String of Pearls’ is a systematic effort to mitigate this vulnerability by creating alternative energy corridors and establishing a forward military presence to protect its vital shipping routes.
This strategy is manifested through a network of strategic nodes, where commercial viability is often secondary to strategic utility. Key ‘pearls’ include:
- Gwadar, Pakistan: This deep-water port, the terminus of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), gives China direct access to the Arabian Sea, bypassing the Malacca Strait and allowing it to project power towards the Strait of Hormuz.
- Hambantota, Sri Lanka: Acquired through a 99-year lease after Sri Lanka defaulted on Chinese loans, this port provides a vital strategic perch near major east-west shipping lanes and India’s southern coast.
- Djibouti: China’s first official overseas military base, established in 2017, is positioned at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, securing access to the Suez Canal and providing a logistics hub for operations in the Western Indian Ocean.
This infrastructure supports the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) ambition to become a “two-ocean” navy. Backed by an unprecedented shipbuilding program, the PLAN is now the world’s largest navy by number of vessels, fielding advanced aircraft carriers and cruisers. This is amplified by a deep naval nexus with Pakistan, which creates a credible two-front maritime challenge for India.
The Elephant’s Gambit: India’s Asymmetric Counter
Faced with strategic encirclement, India has developed its ‘Necklace of Diamonds’ counterstrategy, leveraging its unique geography and diplomatic agility rather than attempting to match China’s naval expansion ship-for-ship. This is framed by the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine, which promotes a collaborative, rules-based regional order as a counter-narrative to China’s transactional Belt and Road Initiative.
The fulcrum of India’s strategy is the Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC). This tri-service command, situated astride the entry points to the Strait of Malacca, acts as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” and a formidable platform for surveillance and power projection. Unlike China’s ownership-driven model, India’s network is built on strategic access agreements. Key “diamonds” include:
- Military access to Duqm Port in Oman, strategically positioned between China’s facilities at Gwadar and Djibouti.
- Access to Sabang Port in Indonesia, located at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, granting an unparalleled position for surveillance.
- Development projects on Assumption Island (Seychelles) and Agalega Island (Mauritius) to extend surveillance deep into the southern Indian Ocean.
Recognizing the scale of the challenge, India has shed its traditional non-alignment to build a collective security architecture. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—with the U.S., Japan, and Australia—and a deep strategic partnership with France serve as critical force multipliers, enhancing naval interoperability through complex joint exercises like Malabar and Varuna.
The Decisive Arena: The Underwater Contest
The Sino-Indian naval competition is increasingly shifting to the silent, opaque depths of the underwater domain. China is actively preparing this undersea battlespace, using “research” vessels to systematically collect hydrographic data that optimizes navigation for its large and maturing fleet of stealthy submarines equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP).
In response, India has made enhancing its Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) capabilities a top priority, constructing a multi-layered defense. The cornerstone of this effort is its fleet of American-made Boeing P-8I Poseidon aircraft, widely considered the world’s most advanced ASW platform. These are supported by MH-60R Seahawk helicopters, specialized anti-submarine warships, and a growing network of undersea sensors. This silent hunt—a race between Chinese stealth and Indian detection, amplified by intelligence from partners—could be more decisive than any surface engagement.
Strategic Calculus and Future Trajectory
The conclusive assessment reveals a tense equilibrium. China possesses overwhelming numerical superiority and a formidable shipbuilding industry, but it remains an expeditionary force in the IOR, constrained by the “tyranny of distance.” India, while facing a quantitative deficit, holds powerful countervailing strengths in its dominant geography and its strong, interoperable alliances with other major naval powers.
The rivalry is a classic confrontation between a continental power with global maritime ambitions and a quintessential maritime power defending its home region. This enduring competition, a contest between two fundamentally different visions for the regional order, will be the defining feature of Indo-Pacific security for the foreseeable future. Its outcome will determine the future of the rules-based maritime order and the security of the global commons upon which international trade depends.
About the contributor: Harshdeep Roshan is Student at Ta. Pai Management Institute, Manipal from Lucknow/Manipal. He is a fellow of DFPGYF Diplomacy, Foreign Policy & Geopolitics Youth Fellowship- Cohort 2.0.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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Acknowledgement: This article was posted by Shivashish Narayan, a visiting researcher at IMPRI.
