Anil Trigunayat
Foreign policy in the neighbourhood turns out to be a sine curve, but that’s what engineers the constant recalibration and rejuvenation of relationship, writes former diplomat Anil Trigunayat in his exclusive Op-Ed on the impacts of the regime change in Sri Lanka on India.
Kudos to people of Sri Lanka for further enriching the roots of democracy as the elections on September 21 and the following run off gave a clear mandate from among the 38 candidates vying for the top post in the first ever elections since the removal of Rajapaksas in 2022 by the protesting Sri Lankans against their misrule.
It seems to have become the standard playbook as has been witnessed in neighbouring Bangladesh where another unpopular Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to flee the country in view of the increasingly violent protests against her style of governance. Political scientists and observers will argue on the reasons, the outcomes and the rights and the wrongs of such actions in democracies and dictatorships alike.
Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan elections threw up a surprise result when Anura Dissanayake (AKD) was eventually declared winner and taken over as the President of an economically struggling and strapped nation. Last direct elections in 2019 saw a landslide but rather short victory of Gotabaya Rajapaksa whose regime was responsible for the downfall of the country that was about to cross the threshold of a developing country status.
Apart from the adverse impact of Russia-Ukraine war, the pandemic and the debilitating billions of dollars of debts that Rajapaksa, in his wisdom, had secured from China for his white elephantine projects were responsible for this state of affairs. He even pawned away the critical ports due to non-payments. Plight of the people and combination of irresponsible polices mired by corruption led to his exit from the political scene.
One of the common factors in the 2019 and 2024 elections is another major contender Sajith Premadasa who on both occasions secured the second position. The interim President Ranil Wickremasinghe, who tried to stabilise the economy to certain extent lost the faith of the people even as he contested as an independent candidate.
I was in Colombo in March 2022 when the disgruntled Sri Lankans rose against Rajapaksa and his clan and evicted him from power and the country. Of course Namal Rajapaksa son of Mahinda Rajapaksa of SLPP was one of the contenders but his fate was a given since public memory was not so short.
Dissanayake was declared winner in the second round securing 55.89% votes and was sworn in. All sides accepted the results and smooth transition was witnessed for which credit must go to the people of Sri Lanka who are entitled to vote and rank three preferences from among the 38 candidates. Sri Lankans possibly wanted to exercise the third option as against the two major political parties.
Dissanayake campaigned on a platform promoting economic freedoms and welfare protections for the working class. He even is not happy with $2.9 IMF loan conditionalities and may initiate renegotiations despite limited choices.
President Dissanayake and his NPP (National People’s Power) political party and Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) have a Marxist dispensation and is often seen aligning with the Chinese Communist Party CCP. He had also visited China in 2023. No wonder the Chinese President Xi Jinping quickly congratulated the new Sri Lankan President. Even the Indian CPI(M) expressed their happiness at the election of the first ever Marxist leader in Sri Lanka.
Hence, even though in the short run it might appear that his leanings towards China could be disconcerting for the Indian policy makers as his party has also been opposed to the 13th amendment to the Constitution for representation of Tamil Minorites. His father, the founder of the Party in the 1980s, had strong views about India. But in the public eye the role of China and usurpation of their vital assets like Hambantota Port for 99 years and the daily plight that the heavy Chinese debt had created, at the grass roots level, could have a sobering impact on the new leadership. After all the people don’t have such a short memory.
India is the only country that rose to the occasion when Sri Lankans needed the most with over $4bn in loans and grants and investments and high impact community projects. India’s continued assistance helped stabilise the country in accordance with the non-reciprocal Neighbourhood First Policy. Indian High Commissioner was one of the first to meet the new President and discuss the way forward for our bilateral cooperation while assuring him of India’s fullest support as he confronts the domestic socio-economic challenges.
Some time for reassessments have to be accorded to both the sides but given the civilisational connect and benign and welfare oriented Indian policies towards the people of Sri Lanka, the relationship will continue to move in a sound trajectory for mutual interests and mutual benefit with due regard to mutual sensitivities.
This was clearly evident during Dissanayake’s visit to India in February this year when he had met both Dr S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval and even visited Amul dairy plant, about which he had certain misgivings. New Delhi should extend an invitation to him to visit India, if not already done. Prime Minister Modi congratulated the Sri Lankan President emphasising that he looks forward to working closely with him to further strengthen the Indo-Lankan multifaceted cooperation.
Foreign policy in the neighbourhood turns out to be a sine curve, but that’s what engineers the constant recalibration and rejuvenation of relationship. China in our neighbourhood is a reality and India understands it. There is no reason to believe that the national interest of the country will reign supreme in his balancing foreign policy calculations. Although he said “I am not a magician” but it would need him to spin out some original tricks to tide over the economic problems faced by the people.
Anil Trigunayat, is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation.
This article was first published in CNBC TV18 as “The regime change in Sri Lanka | Why New Delhi should extend an early invitation to Dissanayake to visit India” on 24 September 2024.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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Acknowledgement: This article was posted by Kirti Ranjan, a research intern at IMPRI.
