diyag

diyag

  • Joined: February 14, 2022
  • Articles: 65

India: Growth Prospects after COVID

The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted heavy economic costs across the world with countries reeling under recession. Certain structural reforms such as the national monetization pipeline, national infrastructure pipeline, production linked incentive schemes, PM Garib Kalyan Package, Atmnirbhar Bharat among others have helped mitigate the effects. To evaluate the way forward for a long term economic expansion, we have gathered for a talk under the series The State of the Economy - #EconDialogue on the topic India: Growth Prospects after COVID. This deliberation is being organized by the IMPRI Center for the Study of Finance and Economics, IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute, New Delhi.

Realities of Unemployment in India

Even before COVID-19, the unemployment rate touched a peak in 2017-18 at 6.1%. The urban unemployment rate was 7.8% and the rural unemployment rate was 5.3%. While the unemployment rate declined to 5.8% in 2018-19 and 4.8% in 2019-20, urban unemployment declined marginally to 7.7% and 6.9%, respectively. It was stubbornly around 7-8% during 2021 and later. If we consider the current weekly status quarterly unemployment statistics for urban areas, it was 9.4% in January-March 2021 and rose to 12.6% in April-June 2021.

Implications and Solutions: Air Pollution in Delhi and Surrounding Cities

The IQAir World Air Quality Report: 2021, released on March 22, 2022, highlights that India's capital Delhi has been named the world's most polluted capital for the fourth consecutive year. Of the 50 most polluted cities in the world, 35 are in India and 10 of the top 15 most polluted cities in Central and South Asia are in India, four in Pakistan and just one in China. India also ranks fifth among the countries most affected by air pollution. India's air quality is deteriorating day by day due to air pollution (World Air Quality Report, 2021).

India’s Stance on Global Issues

The Ukraine crisis has emerged as another major challenge and instigator for the ongoing transition in the much-stressed global order or disorder depending on the way one looks at it. The Russian invasion or ‘special military operation’ as Moscow terms it, was a combination and culmination of the ideological contest, political beliefs, real politics and disregard for genuine concerns, entitlement and abdication of diplomatic paths. It was often perceived that the next big war would happen in Asia as the unbridled growth of China and its military-economic ambitions would herald a situation where confrontation was the eventual outcome.

Increasing Tensions between China and Taiwan Post the Russia Invasion of Ukraine

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, similarities are being drawn towards an impending Chinese military occupation of Taiwan. The 4 February joint statement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping mentioned their respective positions in Ukraine and Taiwan. China’s social networking sites equated to the two cases of Ukraine and Taiwan.

Learnings for the Non-BJP

Representative democracy is a mechanism that best ensures accountability, responsiveness and trust of the people in their elected officials. Given the rising expectations of the people from the government, retaining trust is no mean achievement. The victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in four out of five states in the assembly elections has been spectacular.

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