The New Coalition: North Korea in Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Policy Update
Naushaba

The prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine is showing no signs of abating. The conflict has been going on for more than two & half years now, reportedly either killing or wounding between 462,000 and 728,000 soldiers. Despite widespread calls for peace, the situation remains tense.

Recent reports confirmed by the US suggest that Russia will soon engage North Korean troops in the ongoing war. Russia had already been using North Korea’s ammunition on the battlefield as identified by the Ukrainian soldiers, further involvement of North Korea in the conflict, as a nuclear-capable state, would escalate the stakes. The increasing collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang has not only raised concern among the superpowers but also has raised fears of broader escalation.

Notorious history of North Korea

North Korea’s involvement in various geopolitical shifts has consistently influenced the geopolitical dynamics over the years. It has always been part of the coalition against the West, which has put it under the banner of the axis of evil. Although a misnomer, given by the former US president, George W. Bush, to describe the dissident states of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea which are antagonistic to Western interests. Now, the group members have been changed after Iraq’s removal following its destruction by the US and the recent inclusion of Russia after its invasion of Ukraine and Iran with its 1979 revolution onwards.

North Korea was part of the Axis during World War II and after acquiring themselves a state in 1953 after a prolonged war with South Korea, backed by the US, North Korea chose the path of isolationism, protectionism and self-reliance. Decades of isolationist and protectionist stance led to a severe economic crisis, prompting North Korea to open itself to the world.

To maintain autonomy and security, North Korea charted out its own ways of development by pursuing a nuclear policy. What further infuriated the Western world was when it exited the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 2003 and continued its nuclear arms development in defiance of international boycotts and condemnation. Now it has become part of the Axis of Upheaval to defy the existing International order led by the US.

The Deal and The Ordeal

As showcased, North Korea’s leadership has always thrived in the moments of crisis in the international system. Now, amid a global power transition between the US and China and escalating conflicts from Gaza to Ukraine, North Korea has again seized the opportunity. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid its first visit to Pyongyang since 2000, to sign a mutual defence pact. This deal now appears to be more than just a mutual defence pact, as North Korea leverages the ongoing conflict by selling its ammunition as well as deepening its involvement in the conflict. 

The U.S. confirmed on Wednesday that Pyongyang has deployed soldiers to Russia. Reports from South Korea and Ukraine suggest that “the secretive state” of North Korea was planning to involve thousands of troops in the war. Furthermore, up to 12,000 North Korean troops have been training in Russia’s Far East, preparing to fight alongside Moscow. John Kirby, White House national security spokesman, expressed grave concern that “at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers arrived this month by sea to Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, however, we do not yet know whether these soldiers will enter into combat alongside the Russian military, but this is certainly a highly concerning probability.” 

Additionally, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) revealed that these North Korean soldiers were issued fake Identification cards from the Russian republics of Yakutia and Buryatia, who look similar to North Koreans, “It appears that they disguised themselves as Russian soldiers to hide the fact that they were deployed to the battlefield.”

Nuclear capable North Korea

North Korea’s nuclear capabilities represent a formidable threat to global security, with a known arsenal that includes nuclear warheads and long-range ballistic missiles. Since its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003, North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear technology, achieving significant advancements in missile technology, and giving it the capacity to target regions far beyond its borders. Its recent arms collaborations with Russia indicate a strategic alignment that could affect the balance of military power in conflict zones like Ukraine.

North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has the potential to drastically escalate the conflict, not only through direct contributions of troops and ammunition but also by introducing other nuclear-capable actors into the conflict where belligerent parties are already nuclear-capable. Russian president has already warned the West by suggesting that, “Russia is ready for a nuclear war.” Such involvement could trigger a broader geopolitical response, heightening risks and adding new complexity to an already volatile situation

The impact on the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Michael Butler, a political science professor at Clark University in Worcester (MA) said the geopolitical significance of North Korean troops fighting for Russia “shouldn’t be minimised.” However, “it is less clear that the infusion represents a major force multiplier, at least in the short run.” Furthermore, It has been understood by eminent scholars that “The Korean People’s Army is massive in size but has not engaged in prolonged active combat since the 1950s, is entirely unfamiliar with the conflict environment in Ukraine, and has long been plagued by supply and morale problems as well as inferior technology.” However, North Korea’s nuclear capability is poised to elevate the conflict to an entirely new level of intensity.

South Korea has also suggested that it may partake in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war if there is an active involvement of North Korea in the conflict. South Korea is considered to be the middle power and has been one of the staunchest supporters of the US. It has a distinct security alliance with the US  primarily due to the historical tensions in the Korean peninsula. Such pro-US ally active engagement in the Russia-Ukraine war will not only intensify the war at the forefront but will also extend the war from Eurasia to Southeast Asia and later at the global scale with the involvement of other superpowers. 

The Staggering Superpower

The superpower status of the US has already been questioned many times, particularly amid the rising China. Many esteemed scholars with the backing of global power transition theory have emphasised that the change at the global level can be seen in the escalating tumultuous relationship between the US and China at the global level with the increasing dissatisfaction among various states with the US. The supreme position of the US has been put under the microscope in many regions, from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. The covert alliance of Russia, China, North Korea and many other dissident states from the Middle East have put the US in a staggering position. 

Furthermore, In a multipolar world with the rise of powerful and influential states like India, who have been able to maintain their boundaries with the US while at the same time balancing it in their favour has made the US question itself as “the city on the hill.” In the Russia-Ukraine conflict too, the US has only been able to provide ammunition and economic aid to Ukraine.

It has stopped short of fully meeting Ukraine’s demand for NATO membership and has not decisively used its superpower status to either penalise Russia or resolve the conflict. Similarly, despite extensive sanctions, the U.S. has struggled to curb North Korea’s ambitions. These challenges reflect broader limitations in U.S. power, as seen in other complex situations like Palestine, where traditional U.S. influence has proven insufficient to achieve desired outcomes.

Way Forward

It is still uncertain how costly this strategic move will be for Russia and North Korea, however, it is clear that the involvement of North Korea will intensify the conflict and will draw other superpowers which will further complicate the peace process. Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, addressed an international meeting, devoted to implementing a peace plan, saying “Don’t expect this war to end when the warring sides begin to talk to each other … Don’t be deceived. This war will end when the last soldier of the occupying army returns home.”

North Korea’s involvement would mean South Korea’s involvement, which has already been indicated by its external ministry. Although South Korea has urged Russia to stop its “illegal cooperation” with North Korea and voiced “grave concern,” potential involvement can escalate the situation at the global level. Lloyd Austin, US secretary of defence has warned that if the North Korean troops become “co-belligerents” in Russia’s war in Ukraine, the impact will go beyond Europe to impact Indo-Pacific security.

For North Korea, the situation is dual-edged, as it will have an advantageous relationship with Russia by deepening and strengthening security relations, however stern International pressure will further damage already economically torn North Korea. Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy has called Russia and North Korea as “the coalition of criminals” and has already urged the world leaders to pile ‘tangible pressure’ on Pyongyang. Meanwhile, South Korea has continued to press Russia to stop its ‘illegal cooperation’ with North Korea. 

Given historical patterns, it can be easily predicted that wherever the US is involved, the conflict won’t end easily. The US has already been facing a global power transition, as a result, it will assert extensive pressure till a favourable outcome is secured. Russia too on the other hand will not give up against the US until the situation falls in their favour. The involvement of North Korea and its nuclear capability will eventually raise the stakes further and will draw additional middle and superpowers, escalating the tension.

Ultimately, who will suffer the most? It will be the people and soldiers of all the countries involved.  As seen in the ongoing tragedy in Palestine, due to the US interest, the conflict has led to genocide, Despite international cries and efforts there has been no end to the genocide and leaders continue to kill innocent civilians. Similarly, in this conflict, ordinary citizens and troops from these states will bear the burden of egoistic leaders’ irrational decisions, with no relief in sight.

References

About the Contributor– Naushaba (she/her/hers) is a research intern at the Impact and Policy Research Institute and a postgraduate from the Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia. Her research interests lie in Geopolitics, Gender Studies, Human Rights, Climate Change and Sustainable Development.

Acknowledgement –  The author would like to thank Dr Arjun Kumar, Aasthaba Jadeja, Mohd. Asif and Sumit Dahipale for the successful completion of this article.

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