ANIL TRIGUNAYAT
New Delhi has clearly articulated its approach with a more robust Neighbourhood First policy, but the ball is in Dhaka’s court. Tarique Rahman must make the right choices to steer Bangladesh onto a development path
After about a year and a half of uncertainty and chaos post the violent ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Bangladesh witnessed the democratic transition of power on February 12, with over 60 per cent of Bangladeshis casting their vote for 300 Jatiyo Sansad seats. No doubt the doubts persisted until the last minute about whether the elections would be held since several interested sections might have preferred otherwise. Fortunately, good sense prevailed. Also, the fairness and inclusivity of elections will remain a point of debate, especially as the largest political party, the Awami League of Sheikh Hasina, was suspended and barred from contesting the 13th parliamentary elections.
Recently anointed leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Tarique Rahman won at the hustings with the ‘Bangladesh First’ slogan quite convincingly against the multi-party coalition led by Jamaat-e-Islami (JeM), which has often been highly conservative and fundamentalist in its historic dispensation. The surveys called a close contest, but the voters spoke loud and clear.
They have accused large-scale rigging but accepted the loss and agreed to be a positive opposition in the parliament. Their manifesto also spoke of a strong Bangladesh. Youth parties remained marginal. Women’s representation was also marginal, as if with a vengeance. A country led by women for three decades ignored them, with only 83 women candidates out of 2028 – whether due to the Jamaat factor remains to be investigated. India did not send its election observers, even though invited.
Many would have heaved a sigh of relief as BNP garnered a two-thirds majority, which will provide it with significant leverage in policymaking, governance and constitutional reforms. Several of the features of proposed constitutional reforms by the Yunus interim government were simultaneously put to referendum with a simple ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. Many had argued that it was illegitimate since the contents of the proposed reforms were not so well known or publicised, let alone exceeding the remit of a transitional government, which mainly pertained to judicial reforms, a two-term limit restriction for the prime minister, the creation of an upper house, the distribution of powers, etc.
Yet over 60 per cent of voters supported these reforms in the referendum. This will now depend on the BNP government and the proactive Jamat-led opposition. Meanwhile, interim leader and controversial chief adviser Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus is said to be stepping down. Most observers surmise that he had arrived at some understanding to be able to retain the highest constitutional post. For the time being he will demit charge.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was possibly the first leader to congratulate Rahman on his victory, expressing hope of better relations between the two countries while offering felicitations and wishing well for the people of Bangladesh. He also spoke to BNP leader the same day and posted, “Delighted to speak with Mr Tariqe Rahman… I conveyed my best wishes and support in his endeavour to fulfil the aspirations of the people of Bangladesh. As two close neighbours with deep-rooted historical and cultural ties, I reaffirmed India’s continued commitment to the peace, progress and prosperity of both peoples.” It was a significant initiative and reassurance to Bangladeshi friends at the highest level.
No wonder the BNP appreciated the gesture and even mentioned that PM Modi has recognised the election of the BNP. BNP’s poll coordination committee chief, Nazrul Islam Khan, stated, “On behalf of our party, BNP, we thank PM Modi for his wishes. We believe under the leadership of Tarique Rahman, relations between India and Bangladesh will strengthen.”
No doubt, the PM’s congratulatory message had the desired positive impact. India has also shown empathy and outreach when External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended the funeral of the late PM Khaleda Zia, and even the Indian Parliament expressed condolences. It does not mean that several key issues will not resurface. However, it is expected that pragmatism will prevail over rhetoric. The Battle of Begums is over until the next generation, but ironically the absence of women’s representation and candidates at the hustings tells a dismal story.
One of the key live issues that will surely dog the relationship is the presence of Sheikh Hasina in India. The BNP reiterated that they will be seeking the extradition of the Awami League leader currently in exile in India. Both countries do have an extradition treaty, which incidentally was signed during Sheikh Hasina’s regime.
This also has an emotional content and an irritant at the popular level, but the interim government’s way of handling left many questions unanswered and reeked more of vendetta than of justice. It will be seen how an elected government proceeds in the matter and pursues the issues through dialogue and diplomacy or public affront. Sheikh Hasina had called for a boycott and has junked the elections.
Another issue relates to river water disputes. Even as India and Bangladesh had resolved the boundary issues rather admirably, the Teesta issue has remained on the cards due to the West Bengal government’s approach.
Treatment and discrimination against minorities have also been a cause of concern for India, especially during the past 18 months with increased violence. The Indian media commentary, especially from West Bengal, and efforts to expose the politically driven, deeply divisive trends provoked lame excuses and rebuttals from the interim government while minorities were targeted with no remorse.
Since the Hindus, Buddhists and Christians in Bangladesh are their citizens, it is their legitimate expectation that they will be afforded protection by the government of the day, which has often been belied. But the statements and assurance given by Rahman about the minorities, considering them an integral part of the progress, augur well. A Hindu candidate of BNP also won from Dhaka-3 against a Jamaat candidate, which is a good sign. Social cohesion and unity are the strength and a prerequisite for development.
Issues regarding expeditious issuance of visas, despite attacks and threats to the Indian visa offices and threats to diplomats, remain a demand and will have to be looked into. It may be noted that Indian missions, despite threats and rancour, continued to issue about 1000 visas per day.
PM Modi, in his effusive and sincere message to the BNP leader, indeed reassured, “India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh.” And that India will continue to advance our common developmental goals, he reiterated.
New Delhi has clearly articulated its approach with a more robust Neighbourhood First policy, but for its fullest and advantageous exploitation, mutual respect, interest and sensitivities must be underlined by both sides. The ball really and literally is in Dhaka’s court. No doubt in the past year and a half strategic space may have become more crowded in Bangladesh due to proactive anti-India policies of the interim government seeking out the deep states of the US, the ISI of Pakistan and Chinese debt designs.
There are no free lunches in the geopolitical chess game. But the choice is theirs whether to go in for a nutritious and sumptuous and healthy meal or borrow for the fine dining.
But as a good neighbour, India wishes well to the people of Bangladesh in their developmental journey going forward. While Bangladesh and its new dispensation search for their historical moorings and dividends of the August upheaval, for India prudence, pragmatism and proactive public diplomacy will yield a closer P2P connection in pursuance of its non-reciprocal ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’.
Anil Trigunayat, is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation.
The article was first published in Firstpost as Geopolitics has no free lunches: Pragmatism is Bangladesh’s only real option on February 15, 2026.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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Acknowledgment: This article was posted by R.Tejaswini, a Research Intern at IMPRI.
