In the wake of unprecedented developments in West Asia especially the demarche and rapprochement by major Gulf powers in recent times, the meeting of National Security Advisers of USA (Jake Sullivan), India (Ajit Doval), and UAE (Sheikh Tahnoun) in Riyadh with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman was highly significant for more than one reason.
Even as Russia’s own Wagner Group Chairman has urged Putin to declare victory and ceasefire after Bakhmut and control of the region in the east strategically designed for control by the Russian planners, and China brought in 12 point peace plan, the observers do not really see an end to the war. Indian PM Narendra Modi has been urging both sides to ceasefire and return to dialogue as he chairs the G20 and has offered India’s assistance in doing so if the warring sides were ready, but there are no signs of ceasefire that one could see yet.
Sudanese have suffered a week long violence that was not seen before except in the Darfur some 20 years ago. This time it is the battle of supremacy between the current ruler military chief General Burhan and his rival deputy Gen Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo also notoriously called Hemedti heading the Rapid Support forces (RSF) drawn from the feared Janjaweed militias that held and continue to hold sway over the Darfur region.
China will be an ongoing challenge for the Indian foreign and security policy establishment. Its hegemonistic ambitions are clearly evident from the fact that its territorial ingress and disputes are with more countries than it shares a border with.
After the perfidious war of 1962, India became wiser and focussed on creating stronger defences against Chinese designs which have become far more robust during the past few years as greater focus on creating state of the art border infrastructure and quick response mechanisms have been created.
Hackers seem to have acquired a new heft and respect even from the State actors. Hackathons are conducted to crack the codes. Friends spy not only on enemies and adversaries but also on friends, proving that there are no permanent friends or enemies but interests. Any leaks, therefore, cause international embarrassment and can make friendly leaders even more nervous as many understandings and assessments are made and shared even at the highest level in great confidence.
Geo politics is the art of the possible as they say there are no permanent friends or enemies but only interests. But in today’s fast changing global and regional dynamic especially in the volatile West Asia which is still nursing the impact of Arab Spring, economic downturn and pandemic apart from festering hotspots, the US, that had been the arbiter of security in the region, does not seem to inspire the same confidence among the major players in the region.