Major power polarization is today the wider structural reality that is shaping the contours of the emerging global order, and it is a warning sign for all nations, including India, of what is likely to come.
Beginning his three-day state visit to Moscow on March 20, China’s President Xi Jinping stated that relations with Russia are based on “no-alliance, no-confrontation and not targeting any third party”, even though “in a world of volatility and transformation, China will continue to work with Russia to safeguard the international system”. The joint statement issued after talks stated that bilateral relations have “reached the highest level in history”. President Vladimir Putin and President Xi have met 40 times so far.
India formally took over the baton of the G20 Presidency from Indonesia which started for one year from December 1, 2022. At the time of acceptance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated that “The world is looking at the G-20 with hope. Today, I want to assure that India’s G-20 presidency will be inclusive, ambitious, decisive, and action-oriented. Over the next one year, we will strive to ensure that the G-20 acts as a global prime mover to envision new ideas and accelerate collective action.” This was extremely important and flagged a dismal reality of a transitional global order and severe global challenges implicit in prevailing fragmentation, protectionism, and unilateralism in international discourse.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, visibly evident in the bloody fighting in the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, has again drawn attention to the constant – war is the ultima ratio or the supreme arbiter in international politics. International politics takes place in the shadow of war, and force in international politics is timeless, remaining a viable instrument of statecraft.There are six key takeaways for India from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Rarely is a handshake the same as a slap in the face. But when the national security advisers of Saudi Arabia and Iran shook hands in Beijing last Friday, it delivered a stinging blow in Washington DC that echoed in the world’s capitals.
As the United States stays bogged down in its efforts to degrade Russia as a world power, at the expense of Western treasure and Ukrainian lives, not to speak of global growth and deprivation in swathes of Africa, China, identified by the Americans as their systemic rival, has won a decisive round in West Asia in its ongoing contestation of US hegemony of the global order.
South Asia, with the exception of India, was perhaps the most severely impacted region in the world by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war as the region’s domestic contradictions leading to leadership changes and inequities, and even debt-inducing foreign policies continued to play out and further complicate the adverse impacts.
It was not only the economy or the social landscape of countries like Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, but their fragile polities faced even more devastating outcomes. Moreover, their smart gaming and balancing acts between the two competing regional super powers in China and India were severely hampered during the year as the Chinese BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) and its debt-trap and “wolf warrior” diplomacy not only came under stress but created a strategic rethink in several countries.
Apart from the expected third term for President Xi Jinping and the installation of his protégé Li Qiang as Premier of the State Council, the ongoing ‘two sessions’ signals an intensification of China’s “decoupling” process with the United States, the strengthening of the Communist Party’s domination of the State, especially its finance and S&T establishments, and a boost to China’s armed forces with a rising defense allocation despite a slowing economy.