The untimely death of President Ebrahim Raisi has caused a leadership vacuum, as he was mostly slated to succeed the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamanei, who is 85 and is said to be ailing.
If Rafah, which Netanyahu calls the last bastion of Hamas, is fully invaded amid large-scale casualties, then the region may not see peace for years to come.
From Iran's perspective, Israel breached a critical threshold by attacking its diplomatic mission, which Tehran deemed its sovereign territory.
The latest escalation between Israel and Iran marks a significant change in the adversarial relationship between the two antagonists. Not since the first Persian Gulf War of 1990-91, when the Iraqi military under Saddam Hussein struck Israel with SCUD missiles, have the Israelis been subjected to a missile attack on the scale the Iranians executed. Tehran’s most recent salvo involved a combination of drones and missiles. The missile barrage consisted of a mixture of cruise and ballistic missiles. Israel’s missile defences intercepted an estimated 331 missiles launched by the Iranians.
Iran called its attack on Israel a 'defensive response' to the strike on Iran's consulate in Syria's Damascus allegedly by Tel Aviv. It was followed by a warning of a more severe attack if 'Israeli regime make(s) another mistake'
The Middle East is on tenterhooks, again. A dangerous slide into an all-out war is being feared by most even as few seem capable of doing anything substantial to stem it. Nations are rationalising their actions based on their worst fears about their adversaries. And the US, the only major power still capable of significantly influencing the trends on the ground, is at a loss as it tries to stand by its long-time ally while also reassuring others who want a de-escalation. The politics of the Middle East has never been for the faint-hearted, and in this day and age when global dysfunction is at an all-time high, the region's fissures are ready to explode in unprecedented ways.
Anil Trigunayat Israel is quite stretched, and opening new fronts would further compromise its security, whatever the dictates of bravado and political expediency. Finally, after Eid El Fitr and the holy month of Ramadan, as expected, Iran reacted and retaliated…
Defiance of international laws has become a norm even by smaller and middle powers which has further emboldened the non-state actors in the bargain
As Iran celebrated its 45th anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic two things have not abated one is the spate of Western sanctions on Iran and the second is the mutually assured destruction syndrome with Israel. Low-intensity, clandestine attacks on strategic assets and grey zone warfare have continued apace by both sides. But rhetoric is no longer being expressed in words alone. The threat of increasing wider conflagration in the region is becoming real.