Harsh V Pant and Kartik Bommakanti
Ukraine’s bold move is intended to impress Kyiv’s western arms patrons, which could pave the way for a settlement with Russia.
The Ukrainians surprised Russia by launching an audacious attack into the Kursk region of the Russian Federation that also led to the capture of several hundred Russian soldiers. This bold, yet risky, gambit by the Volodymyr Zelenskyy-led regime, to employ thousands of its best fighting units to mount an incursion into Russian territory, was also a fitting one.
The Importance of Pokrovsk
Kyiv has been at the receiving end of Russia’s ongoing offensive inside Ukraine, which shows no sign of weakening despite Ukrainian territorial gains in Kursk. Russian forces are also poised to capture the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk in the Eastern Donetsk region in Ukraine. Pokrovsk is a vital logistics hub that gives Ukrainian forces considerable defensive strength, but it is currently under siege from rapidly advancing Russian forces. Ukrainian forces are now being ordered to withdraw from Pokrovsk, allowing Russian forces to make not just a significant breakthrough but also pave the way for them to capture the whole of the Donetsk region.
Yet, the Ukrainian offensive stands out and deserves and merits closer scrutiny, because no country since Hitler’s Germany has ever invaded any part of Russia. Kyiv had been preparing for this offensive for several months, but concealed it from its western backers — albeit, some may conclude western powers tacitly acquiesced, by frequently drawing attention to a possible Russian attack against the Sumy region of Ukraine which borders Kursk and painting its preparation in the run-up to the offensive as primarily defensive.
This turned out to be a credible cover for the Ukrainians to launch and pursue their ongoing offensive inside Kursk, which, in any case, was weakly defended by Russian military conscripts. From a Ukrainian standpoint, it makes sense to carry out the attack inside the Kursk Oblast in Russia simply because it compels the Russians, even if it is not fully evident yet, to divert and redeploy their forces to areas that were weakly defended.
The depletion of Russian forces is likely to limit the intensity of the Russian offensive inside Ukraine. However, it is unclear whether the Ukrainians have factored in the consequences of a concentrated Russian counter-attack to repel the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk Oblast. Russia has mass and firepower that is by an order of magnitude significantly greater than what the Ukrainians possess, despite the resumption of weapons supplies and munition stocks by Kyiv’s western allies, especially the United States. Kyiv has a choice to make — whether to drive deeper into Russian territory or consolidate existing gains.
Russia, for its part, is unlikely to relent in its ongoing offensive. In fact, there is no evidence to indicate that Moscow is relenting in its offensive to capture the whole of the Ukrainian region of Donetsk and more. It is possible that Moscow has gambled on making far greater and vital territorial gains while allowing some gains in Russia, as is visibly evident from its very probable capture of Pokrovsk — a key logistics centre for Kyiv.
Moscow is Not Blinking
A Russian takeover of Pokrovsk would set the stage for an additional offensive inside Ukraine. While Kyiv’s gains in Kursk have been impressive, with Ukrainian forces taking roughly 1,000 square kilometres of territory, Moscow remains largely unmoved to redeploy forces away from Eastern Ukraine where it has significant initiative and momentum and controls roughly 1,00,000 thousand square kilometres. The latter explains why Moscow is not blinking yet because it knows the balance of territorial control is in its favour and not Kyiv’s. At the most, there is some evidence of Moscow diverting some of its irregular and regular units from Kharkhiv for a counterattack against Ukrainian forces that are presently in occupation of a part of the Kursk Oblast.
The strength of Russia’s response to Kyiv’s surprise incursion may take time to crystallise with Moscow biding its time with the aim of consolidating its gains in Eastern Ukraine.
Kyiv’s Messaging
Ukraine’s battlefield tactics, through the incursion of its forces into Kursk, are as much demonstrative and performative as they are to compel a quid pro quo with Moscow.
The incursion is also intended to signal to and impress Kyiv’s western arms patrons, especially the U.S., that Ukrainian forces are more than capable of seizing the initiative and mounting well-crafted offensives inside Russian territory to blunt Russian territorial gains in Eastern Ukraine. This ensures continued and sustained support from the West on which Ukraine can count, because it could actually win and pave the way in the long run for an end to armed hostilities and a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv. Any end to actual combat is unlikely at least until the early months of next year.
Kyiv also runs two risks: first, moving too deep inside Russian territory, thereby overstretching its forces. And second, of Ukrainian forces currently occupying Kursk, which are among Kyiv’s best trained combat units, facing the prospect of significant losses, and possibly a humiliating retreat, once Russia redeploys and concentrates its military strength against Ukrainian-occupied Kursk.
Whether Kyiv’s incursion into Russian territory was worth the risk, will only be revealed with the passage of time.
Harsh V. Pant is Professor at King’s College, London and Head of Strategic Studies at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi
Kartik Bommakanti is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi
This article was first published in The Hindu as The Kursk gambit, Ukrainian tactics and battle realities on 23 August 2024.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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Acknowledgment: This article was posted by Reetwika Mallick, a visiting researcher and assistant editor at IMPRI.
