Anil Trigunayat
As the negotiations between Iran and the United States mediated by Oman were giving some hope to avert the war, on February 28, US President Donald Trump got played by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and followed the same playbook as June 2025 and launched decapitating attacks on Iran and its leadership, crossing the final redline by killing Ayatollah Khamenei and top military brass.
But this time, Tehran was ready with a devastating response despite an asymmetric disadvantage. War expanded beyond the two or three countries, enveloping the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and beyond, and later provided a much-needed and awaited pretext to Israel to invade Lebanon not only to decimate Hezbollah but also to secure the corridor until the Litani River. Soon, the US realised its limitations against the Iranian will to survive and to prolong the war despite heavy losses. The Strait of Hormuz became doubly blocked by Iran and the US, logic and legalese apart.
An off ramp was sought and a ceasefire ensued with first ever highest-level bilateral talks between fived decades old adversaries in Islamabad though inconclusive led to further technical discussions. Even direct talks between Lebanon and Israel in Washington evolved into a ten days ceasefire that has been one of the conditions for Iran.
Trump , after talks with Macron wrote on his Truth Social -which has become the new craft of US diplomatic conversation – that he had prohibited Tel Aviv to attack on Lebanon and that enough is enough. The fragile ceasefire lasted reasonably well despite blatant threats and verbal diarrhoea. It is likely that the ceasefire might be extended beyond April 21 since according to President Trump they were progressing reasonably well.
While the grey zone warfare and disinformation campaigns amidst the fog of war were acidic and convincing to the uninitiated, the Iranians, in their calm and composed manner, appeared more convincing. Also, being underdogs, they garnered the sympathy of many countries. US embassies have reportedly been lamenting about this critical loss in the information space. But in real relationships as well, the US seems to have lost the trust of major Gulf clients for not being able to secure them against the Iranian attacks and for focusing more on Israeli defence. They are looking for alternatives, including with China and Russia, while working on their own regional architecture, keeping the perfidy of Iran and Israel in mind.
For Tehran, which is not thinking of the day after, regaining the trust of its neighbours will be the biggest foreign policy challenge. This is also an opportunity for India, if it so wishes, since the partners in West Asia expect New Delhi to play a bigger and benign role, including in the domain of security and defence. Of course, an enhanced Pakistan factor will have to be contested and calibrated again. Being a chair of the BRICS this year, India is uniquely placed to advance its strategic objectives.
One of the biggest setbacks to US foreign policy is the distancing and dissociation of major European partners who have refused to align with the shifting Trumpian objectives in this war. Dissing and demeaning the leaders, including the Pope, has added insult to injury, and the festering wounds can be dangerous in the larger scheme of things. They started talking to the Iranians directly and even got their ships to pass through the choke points.
They even launched their own initiative in the wake of the double closure of the Hormuz, with over 50 countries participating. So far the US has been a major provider of freedom of navigation, even if on its terms and without having ratified the UNCLOS. But now the Europeans are hoping to fork the maritime terrain, possibly in pursuance of the vision of the Paris Declaration of 1856, without including the combatants in this initiative.
Still, it will not be that easy but surely a challenge to the US hegemony as its NATO partners look for alternative means. Trump, as such, cares little about NATO, Europeans or their capabilities. On the contrary, Trump holds Chinese, Russian and Indian leaders in high regard despite his occasional indecent outbursts. His visit to Beijing in May would be interesting to watch for.
Meanwhile, rumours of his visit to Islamabad if the deal finalises and possibly combines with India would be interesting developments in a fractured geopolitical landscape. Meanwhile, several European and Gulf leaders are also engaging and visiting China, adding to the complexity of the geopolitical chess. China even called Spain the ‘Spine of Europe’ after the visit of the Spanish Prime Minister.
In his National Security Strategy 2026, Trump wants complete hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, but that has been challenged by the very sovereign constituents like Brazil and Canada and Mexico. Mark Carney of Canada is vocal and convincing and charting his own path of strategic autonomy. President Lula was acidic in his criticism: ‘The invasion of Iraq was a lie; no WMDs were ever found.’ Libya was another lie that destroyed the country.
In the Gaza and Israel conflict, false narratives are repeated to justify violence. What is the pretext for Lebanon or for a confrontation between the US and Iran? Latin America is labelled as ’narco’ and the Arab world as ’extremist’ as he questions, ‘Who is really the good one in this world?’ Italy, France and the UK are mulling over reducing ties with the US and Israel over the unlawful wars in their conviction.
The sooner this war ends, the better it is for the US, Iran and Israel and the rest of the world. The history of wars in just the two decades of the 21st century has a lot of lessons, especially imposing death, destruction and destabilisation, since ignorance and arrogance are no excuses to indulge in them yet again. Control of resources could be a pretext but a fungible one in the spate of uncertainty, unpredictability and frequently moving targets. Hope sanity prevails on all sides in these times of compounding crises.
Anil Trigunayat, is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation.
This article was first published as in The Firstpost as The Iran war has become a losing game for America on April 20, 2026
Disclaimer
All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
Read more at IMPRI:
India’s Silence On Trump’s Iran Threats Undermines Its Global South Role
Acknowledgement
This article was posted by Varisha Sharma, a Research Intern at IMPRI.
