With tensions between an aggressive China and an emerging India intensifying, there will be significant changes and challenges in the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions. As 2022 comes to an end, the world is embracing a ‘new normal’ where new fault lines are being reconfigured in the Indo-Pacific.
Recent clashes between Indian and Chinese soldiers along the Line of Actual Control, or LAC, have once again underscored how a 20th-century conflict continues to shape the 21st-century trajectory of Sino-Indian relations and constrain New Delhi’s aspirations to play a larger role on the global stage. The Galwan Valley crisis of 2020 made it clear that Beijing had no intention of diplomatically resolving its border dispute with India. It also pushed Indian decision-makers into making certain choices that they were reluctant to make in the past, hoping against hope that engagement with China would be enough to produce the desired results.
Germany is changing, its strategic worldview is evolving, and its arrival on the global stage as a geopolitical player comes with immense possibilities. This was displayed during German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock’s maiden visit to India last week. Her clear and confident articulation of Berlin priorities was in sync with expectations in New Delhi about the need for a robust India-Germany and India-European Union (EU) partnership to tackle the formidable challenges that the world faces.
The latest Indian Ocean Forum is another way to challenge Indian influence and presence in the Indian Ocean. This is not China’s first attempt to corner India in its backyard. With the onset of Covid-19, Beijing has shaped multiple initiatives with other South Asian nations, excluding India, and has attempted to institutionalize them. These initiatives have focussed on post-pandemic recovery, enhancing connectivity, emergency supplies reserve, poverty alleviation, and e-commerce cooperation.
The Chinese Communist Party would recognize that it would be prudent to revisit the policies but given how much of Xi’s personal prestige is invested in this policy, there won’t be any question of changing track completely, which actually is the need of the hour. Recent protests in China when thousands took to the streets in several cities calling for an end to Covid lockdowns, with some even demanding Xi Jinping’s resignation are remarkable not only for their boldness but also for what they say about the mood of the country’s citizens.