The Climate Crisis In The Indian Subcontinent: Emerging Risks, Regional Vulnerabilities, And Pathways Towards Climate Action

Session Report
Dolly Kaushik

Climate change has emerged as one of the defining challenges of the twenty-first century, transcending national boundaries and demanding collective global action. While discussions on climate change often revolve around local environmental degradation such as deforestation, urbanisation, or pollution, the scientific reality is far more complex. Climate change leads to disruptions in the Earth’s interconnected systems, driven predominantly by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions accumulated over centuries.

To deepen understanding of these interconnected challenges, IMPRI – Impact and Policy Research Institute, under its Centre for Environment, Climate Change and Sustainable Development (CECCSD), organised the inaugural session of “Understanding the Nuances of Climate Change in the Indian Subcontinent: Cohort 3.0,” a six-week online international monsoon school programme. The Day 1 session of the program began with an insightful address by Mr. Soumya Dutta, Co-Convener of the South Asian People’s Action on Climate Crisis (SAPACC), New Delhi, who provided a comprehensive scientific and policy-oriented overview of climate change, its implications for South Asia, and India’s preparedness for an increasingly uncertain climatic future. The session was hosted by Ms. Dolly, research intern at IMPRI.

Climate Change as an Earth System Crisis

Mr. Dutta began by challenging one of the most persistent misconceptions surrounding climate change that the local environmental activities alone are responsible for altering the global climate. While local actions undoubtedly influence ecosystems, climate change itself is fundamentally an outcome of changes occurring across interconnected Earth systems.

The climate system functions as one among several Earth systems that continuously interact with one another. Consequently, disturbances in biodiversity, oceans, hydrological cycles, atmospheric composition, and land use collectively shape climate outcomes. Understanding climate change, therefore, requires moving beyond isolated local events towards a systems-based perspective that recognises the interconnectedness of natural processes.

This scientific understanding also highlights why climate change cannot be addressed solely through local interventions. It demands coordinated global action aimed at stabilising planetary systems that regulate the Earth’s climate.

The Shrinking Carbon Budget and the Planetary Boundaries Framework

One of the central concepts discussed during the session was the global carbon budget which is the maximum cumulative amount of carbon dioxide that humanity can emit while maintaining a reasonable probability of limiting dangerous climate change.

Scientific assessments indicate that humanity has already exhausted the overwhelming majority of this budget since the onset of the Industrial Revolution. With only a small fraction of the remaining carbon budget available, current annual emissions suggest that this threshold could be crossed within the next few years if existing emission trajectories continue.

This shrinking carbon budget demonstrates that climate change is no longer merely a future challenge but a rapidly unfolding crisis requiring immediate mitigation measures.

Complementing this discussion, Mr. Dutta introduced the concept of planetary boundaries, developed to identify the safe operating limits for critical Earth systems. The framework assesses multiple environmental processes, including biodiversity loss, land-system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical flows, climate change, and the introduction of novel entities such as plastics and synthetic chemicals.

Recent scientific assessments reveal that humanity has already crossed several of these planetary boundaries, indicating that human activities are increasingly pushing Earth’s life-support systems beyond their safe operating limits. Although complete systemic collapse may not yet have occurred, continued transgression substantially increases the risks of irreversible ecological disruptions.

Climate Tipping Points and the Closing Window for Action

Another critical concept highlighted during the lecture was that of climate tipping points.

Earth systems possess a certain degree of resilience and can recover from limited disturbances. However, once specific thresholds are crossed, these systems may undergo abrupt and irreversible transformations.

Examples include the accelerated melting of polar ice sheets, degradation of tropical forests, collapse of major ocean circulation systems, and widespread biodiversity loss. Current scientific evidence suggests that several tipping elements may become increasingly unstable as global temperatures approach or exceed 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Although international climate negotiations have consistently aimed to limit warming to 1.5°C, current emission trajectories indicate that this threshold is likely to be temporarily exceeded within the coming decade. Even under optimistic scenarios involving rapid emission reductions, global temperatures are expected to overshoot this limit before gradually declining later in the century.

This reality underscores the urgency of accelerating mitigation efforts while simultaneously strengthening adaptation strategies.

Biodiversity Loss: An Overlooked Dimension of Climate Change

The lecture also emphasised that climate change should not be viewed independently of biodiversity decline.

According to recent global assessments, approximately one million species currently face the risk of extinction due to habitat destruction, pollution, climate change, and unsustainable resource exploitation. Human activities have dramatically altered ecosystems, reducing the abundance of wild species while expanding domesticated animal populations and human settlements.

Biodiversity serves as the foundation for food systems, ecosystem services, water security, and climate regulation. Consequently, biodiversity loss weakens ecosystem resilience, making societies even more vulnerable to climate-induced shocks.

Rather than representing separate environmental crises, biodiversity loss and climate change reinforce one another, necessitating integrated policy responses.

Climate Change in the Indian Subcontinent: Emerging Regional Vulnerabilities

While climate change is a global phenomenon, its manifestations vary significantly across regions. Mr. Dutta emphasised that understanding climate change in the Indian context requires moving beyond political boundaries to examine the broader South Asian climatic system. The region’s climate is shaped by three interdependent geographical components: the North Indian Ocean, the Himalayan mountain system, and the South Asian monsoon. Together, these systems regulate rainfall patterns, river flows, agricultural productivity, and weather variability across the subcontinent.

Unlike many environmental challenges that remain localised, climate impacts in South Asia transcend national borders. Shared river basins, interconnected monsoon systems, and common coastal ecosystems make countries such as India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka collectively vulnerable to climatic disturbances. Consequently, effective climate adaptation requires regional cooperation alongside national action.

Warming Himalayas and Changing Ocean Dynamics

Historically, the Indian subcontinent experienced warming at a slower pace than the global average, primarily because the surrounding oceans moderated atmospheric temperatures. However, this trend has begun to reverse over the past two decades.

Mr. Dutta explained that while peninsular India has warmed by approximately one degree Celsius over the past century, the Himalayan region has witnessed a much faster increase in temperature. Such accelerated warming has significant implications for glacier retreat, snow cover, river systems, and water security for millions of people living downstream.

Equally concerning is the rapid warming of the North Indian Ocean, particularly the Arabian Sea. Scientific observations indicate substantial increases in sea surface temperatures, fundamentally altering cyclone behaviour. The Arabian Sea, once relatively less prone to severe cyclonic activity compared to the Bay of Bengal, is now witnessing a sharp rise in both the frequency and intensity of cyclones.

This shift has exposed India’s western coastline including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, and Kerala to increasingly severe storms, causing extensive damage to coastal infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and human settlements.

The Intensification of Extreme Weather Events

A recurring theme throughout the lecture was the growing unpredictability of India’s weather systems. Climate change is no longer characterised merely by gradual warming but by an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events.

Mr. Dutta pointed to recent episodes of unprecedented rainfall across western India, including Mumbai, Pune, and Lonavala, where rainfall records were broken within short periods. Such events illustrate the growing volatility of the hydrological cycle.

The underlying scientific explanation lies in the warming oceans. As sea surface temperatures rise, oceans evaporate greater quantities of water vapour into the atmosphere. Simultaneously, warmer air possesses a greater capacity to retain moisture. Eventually, this moisture condenses, resulting in intense precipitation over short durations, often overwhelming existing drainage systems and causing devastating floods.

The same processes also intensify tropical storms and cyclones, as latent heat released during condensation provides additional energy to storm systems. Consequently, climate change is transforming not only rainfall patterns but also the destructive potential of weather events.

Climate Change and the Human Cost

One of the most compelling aspects of the lecture was its emphasis on the social dimensions of climate change. Rather than viewing climate change solely through environmental indicators, Mr. Dutta highlighted its disproportionate impacts on vulnerable communities whose livelihoods are directly dependent on natural resources.

Heatwaves, for instance, are increasingly affecting millions of informal sector workers, including construction labourers, street vendors, sanitation workers, agricultural labourers, and transport workers. Rising temperatures, when combined with increasing humidity, significantly reduce the human body’s ability to dissipate heat, exposing workers to severe physiological stress.

For these communities, reducing outdoor work during heatwaves is rarely an option, as daily wages often determine daily survival. Climate change therefore emerges not only as an environmental challenge but also as an issue of labour rights, occupational safety, and social protection.

Similarly, coastal fishing communities are experiencing mounting economic losses due to increasingly frequent cyclone warnings and prolonged restrictions on fishing activities. Shortened fishing seasons, saline intrusion into agricultural land, and repeated infrastructure damage have substantially weakened coastal livelihoods.

The lecture also highlighted the emergence of climate-induced migration, particularly from vulnerable coastal regions such as the Sundarbans and parts of Odisha. Repeated cyclones, rising sea levels, and increasing salinity have compelled many households to relocate inland, often without formal recognition or institutional support. These “hidden” climate migrants remain largely absent from national policy discussions despite growing evidence of displacement.

Ecological Consequences Beyond Climate

Climate change is simultaneously reshaping India’s ecological landscape.

Warmer temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have increased the incidence of forest fires across central India and parts of the Himalayan region. Prolonged dry conditions reduce soil moisture and vegetation resilience, making forests increasingly susceptible to fire outbreaks.

Aquatic ecosystems are also undergoing significant stress. Rising water temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen levels, threatening freshwater and marine biodiversity while affecting inland fisheries that sustain millions of livelihoods.

Additionally, changing climatic conditions are expanding the geographical range of disease vectors such as mosquitoes. Regions of the Himalayas that previously remained free from vector-borne diseases are now witnessing cases of malaria and dengue, illustrating how climate change is altering public health risks alongside environmental conditions.

India’s Climate Policy: Progress Amid Persistent Gaps

The concluding segment of the lecture examined India’s climate governance architecture.

Mr. Dutta acknowledged India’s active engagement in international climate diplomacy through participation in the Stockholm Conference, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement, and successive Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). India has also made considerable progress in expanding renewable energy capacity and improving emission intensity.

However, he argued that the country’s climate response remains disproportionately focused on mitigation, while adaptation continues to receive comparatively limited attention.

Although national and state climate action plans exist, their implementation on the ground remains uneven. Communities most vulnerable to climate impacts like small farmers, fish workers, informal labourers, forest-dependent populations, and low-income urban households often lack adequate institutional support to cope with increasingly frequent climate disasters.

This imbalance between mitigation and adaptation raises important policy concerns. Investments in renewable energy and infrastructure are undoubtedly necessary, but they must be complemented by stronger social protection systems, climate-resilient livelihoods, early warning mechanisms, disaster preparedness, and locally grounded adaptation strategies.

Conclusion

The session underscored that climate change is no longer a distant environmental concern but a multidimensional crisis affecting ecological systems, economies, public health, and human livelihoods. Through a scientifically grounded yet socially conscious perspective, Mr. Soumya Dutta demonstrated that climate change cannot be understood solely through rising temperatures or carbon emissions. It is fundamentally a crisis of interconnected Earth systems, with profound implications for vulnerable populations, particularly across South Asia.

The discussion also highlighted the urgent need to bridge the gap between scientific knowledge and public policy. While international agreements and national commitments remain essential, their effectiveness ultimately depends on implementation that strengthens resilience at the community level. As climate impacts become increasingly visible across the Indian subcontinent, integrating mitigation with robust adaptation measures will be crucial to safeguarding both ecosystems and human well-being.

The inaugural session of Understanding the Nuances of Climate Change in the Indian Subcontinent: Cohort 3.0 thus laid a strong foundation for subsequent discussions by encouraging participants to approach climate change not merely as an environmental issue, but as a complex developmental challenge requiring interdisciplinary understanding, evidence-based policymaking, and sustained collective action.